Posts in Economy
The Policy Pivot: Why Global Climate Mandates Secure the Reforestation Investment Case (Copy)
Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero and launches massive $700 billion quantitative easing program
  • In an emergency move Sunday, the Federal Reserve announced it is dropping its benchmark interest rate to zero and launching a new round of quantitative easing.

  • The QE program will entail $700 billion worth of asset purchases entailing Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.

  • Markets responded negatively, with Dow futures pointing to a drop of 900 points when the market opens Monday morning.

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Stocks tend to bounce back quickly from market drops like this one
  • The major averages all slid more than 3% on Monday as the number of reported coronavirus cases outside of China rose.

  • If history is any indication stocks may be set for a relief rally on Tuesday.

  • According to Bespoke Investment Group, since March 2009 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 2% during a Monday session 18 other times, and that in 15 of the prior instances the index rose the following day, for an average gain of 1.02%.

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How Microsoft became the market’s indispensable stock once again
  • Microsoft’s primacy and ubiquity in portfolios reflects the way it exemplifies nearly every characteristic that today’s market is rewarding richly.

  • Microsoft enjoys mid-30s percent profit margins, has repeatedly reloaded a $40 billion buyback plan and pays out more than $15 billion a year in dividends.

  • Microsoft is among the top 10 holdings in the most hedge funds, according to Goldman Sachs.

  • But has the acclaim for Microsoft become a bit extreme and uncomfortably unanimous.?

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EconomyDefoeseconomy, microsoft
Dow jumps 480 points, S&P 500 closes at record as market shakes off coronavirus fears

Stocks rose for a third straight day on Wednesday, pushing the S&P 500 back to levels hit prior to the coronavirus scare. 

The broad index closed 1.1% higher at 3,334.69, led by strong gains in the energy, financials and health care sectors. That gain drove the S&P 500 to a record closing high. It also erased its losses stemming from fears over the coronavirus and came within a whisker of hitting an all-time intraday high.

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What’s likely causing the sell-off and how worried you should be
  • The S&P 500 has dropped 3% from its record high. Economically cyclical groups have been purged. Bonds are leading stock returns one month into the year.

  • Something was bound to come along and prompt a pullback. As it happened, the viral outbreak arrived to do the job.

  • Given that a perfectly routine decline following a strong multi-month rally could amount to 2% to 5%, a further drop of 2% to 3% would not compromise the broader uptrend.

  • Bond markets pricing in a high likelihood of another Fed rate cut around mid-year.

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