Climate Change and Renewable Energy: A Precarious Balance
The global shift towards renewable energy is undeniably accelerating. Solar panels are proliferating across deserts, wind turbines are becoming a common sight along coastlines, and hydropower continues to harness the power of rivers. Recent data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) reveals a record 585 gigawatts of new renewable capacity added globally in 2024, representing over 90% of all new power additions and the fastest annual growth rate in two decades.
However, this rapid expansion faces a formidable challenge: climate change itself. The very force driving the need for renewables is now impacting their production. In 2023, extreme weather events, including record-breaking temperatures and shifts in rainfall and wind patterns, disrupted renewable energy generation worldwide.
The Impact of Climate Variability on Renewable Energy
In Sudan and Namibia, hydropower output plummeted by more than 50% due to unusually low rainfall. In Sudan, rainfall totalled a mere 100 millimetres in 2023, less than half the national long-term average. Given that hydropower constitutes about 60% of Sudan's electricity mix, these reductions have substantial implications for its population of approximately 48 million.
Wind energy also experienced disruptions. China, holding 40% of the world's onshore wind capacity, saw only a modest 4-8% increase in output due to wind anomalies. India witnessed declines in production due to weaker monsoon winds, while some African regions reported wind output reductions of 20-30%.
Conversely, South America benefitted from clear skies and elevated solar radiation, resulting in a 4-6% increase in solar generation. This climate-driven boost translated to approximately three terawatt-hours of additional electricity, enough to power over two million homes annually.
The Vulnerability of Renewable Energy Infrastructure
Renewable energy infrastructure, including dams, solar farms, and wind turbines, is designed based on past climate patterns, rendering it vulnerable to the changing climate. Hydropower, for instance, relies on predictable seasonal flows, often fed by snowmelt or glacial runoff. As glaciers recede, the long-term viability of hydropower in regions like the Andes and the Himalayas is threatened.
Rising sea levels and intensified storms pose increasing risks to coastal energy production facilities, including solar farms. Wildfires can disrupt power lines and cause blackouts, while extreme heat can reduce solar panel efficiency and strain grid infrastructure. Nuclear power plants are also vulnerable, with some unable to operate due to water shortages for cooling.
Adapting to the Future: Climate Intelligence and Technology
To ensure the reliability and resilience of renewable energy systems, climate intelligence is crucial. This involves integrating climate forecasts, data, and science into energy planning. Advanced forecasting and artificial intelligence (AI) can help anticipate and adapt to climate-driven fluctuations in energy supply and demand.
AI-driven machine learning models can predict resource fluctuations with higher resolution and accuracy, optimising battery storage and energy distribution. Projects in Costa Rica and Chile have demonstrated the practical application of AI in wind speed forecasting and estimating evaporation rates for floating solar panels.
The Global South: Opportunities and Challenges
The Global South, particularly Africa, holds immense potential for renewable energy development. However, a lack of data and investment hinders progress. Investors require reliable long-term projections, which are often lacking in these regions. Efforts to improve weather and energy monitoring, along with increased funding for local data networks and cross-border energy planning, are essential.
Diversification and Future Outlook
Diversifying the energy portfolio is crucial for ensuring clean energy reliability. Relying on a single renewable source can expose countries to seasonal or long-term climate shifts. A diversified mix of solar, wind, hydro, battery storage, and low-carbon sources is necessary.
As the world transitions to renewable energy, addressing the challenges posed by climate change is imperative. Climate-smart planning and resilient infrastructure are essential for ensuring a sustainable and reliable energy future. By leveraging advanced forecasting and AI, we can optimise renewable energy production and mitigate the impacts of climate change.
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