The Revolutionary Experiment: Universal Basic Income and the Future of Financial Security
OpenAI's cofounder and CEO, Sam Altman, has funded an ambitious project for the past eight years that explores a radical idea: what if everyone received free money regularly, with no strings attached? This concept, Universal Basic Income (UBI), was one of the first initiatives undertaken by OpenResearch, a moonshot lab associated with OpenAI. Altman has personally invested tens of millions of dollars into this project, driven by a vision of a future profoundly altered by artificial intelligence.
Unveiling the UBI Study
The project has just published results from a comprehensive trial, which disbursed $45 million to thousands of individuals across America. The National Bureau of Economic Research released two papers detailing this "most comprehensive study" on guaranteed income. The National Bureau of Economic Research randomly selected 3,000 participants from Texas and Illinois over a three-year period to receive either a $1,000 or $50 monthly stipend. The aim was to understand how an unconditional allowance might transform lives.
Initial findings indicate that recipients predominantly spent the money on essential needs, medical care, and supporting others. Future papers will explore various aspects, such as the impact on children, mobility, crime, and political engagement.
Gathering Insights
Researchers employed a range of methods to gather data, including phone and online surveys, interviews, time diaries, and third-party sources like educational records and credit reports. They also collected blood samples from willing participants to track health biomarkers. The goal is to de-identify and publicly share the data set, making it widely accessible for further analysis.
The Global Context of UBI
This study is one of several dozen UBI pilot programmes worldwide. The largest is a 12-year trial in Kenya, funded by GiveDirectly. Similar initiatives have taken place in the U.S. and Canada. For instance, since the 1980s, Alaska has distributed annual payments from the state's oil and gas royalties. In 2023, California launched its first state-funded guaranteed income test targeting former foster youth.
Karl Widerquist, a basic income historian and professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, notes that we are witnessing a "third-wave basic income movement." He argues that there is substantial data on the benefits of UBI, but societal consensus on its implementation remains elusive.
Altman's Vision and Skepticism
Altman has long advocated for UBI as a solution to poverty, dating back to his tenure as president of the startup accelerator Y Combinator. He has emphasised the need for data-driven studies on UBI's efficacy, citing automation and AI-driven job displacement as critical reasons for its necessity. Elon Musk has also supported UBI, though his views have evolved recently.
However, some technologists remain sceptical. Jaron Lanier, a computer scientist and "godfather of virtual reality," cautions that UBI could centralise wealth distribution and foster dependency. He advocates for a new economy where individuals are proud data providers rather than reliant on unconditional allowances.
The Impact of the Study
The OpenResearch trial revealed that UBI provides significant flexibility for recipients, allowing them to be more selective in job searches, seek medical care, and support family members. A notable finding was the increased spending on financial support for others, especially among lower-income participants.
While the study did not show significant changes in physical health biomarkers, it did indicate a higher likelihood of recipients seeking healthcare services. This suggests that UBI can improve access to essential services, even if it does not immediately alter long-term health outcomes.
The Future of UBI Research
The continuity of Altman's funding for UBI research is uncertain. OpenResearch has provided support for various projects, some of which, like a platform promoting COVID-19 clinical trials, have come to an end. Nevertheless, the organisation seeks funding to further explore cash assistance and medical inequality.
Altman's evolving views on UBI reflect his broader vision for financial security in the age of AI. He has proposed the concept of "universal basic compute," suggesting financial dividends from large language models like ChatGPT.
Conclusion
The extensive UBI trial by OpenResearch provides valuable insights into the potential of guaranteed income to transform lives. As debates around UBI continue, this study offers crucial data to inform future policies and discussions. The path to a universally implemented UBI may be fraught with challenges. Still, the evidence from these trials underscores its potential to enhance financial security and well-being in an increasingly automated world.