The Uncertain Path Forward for AI Regulation in the U.S.
In mid-2024, the landscape of AI regulation in the United States will be a complex patchwork of policies, best practices, and industry-specific rules. Despite multiple attempts by Congress to establish robust legislation, there are still nocomprehensive laws specifically addressing the regulation of artificial intelligence and its associated risks.
Increasing Calls for AI Regulation
The surge in popularity of AI tools like ChatGPT has brought both the potential and the perils of generative AI to the forefront, raising concerns about discrimination, copyright infringement, and misinformation. As a result, the demand for AI regulation has reached unprecedented levels. In 2023, over 450 organisations, including major players like OpenAI and Anthropic, invested resources in lobbying for AI issues, marking an 185% increase from 2022.
Lawmakers have responded with a flurry of new legislation. Dominique Shelton Leipzig, an AI governance expert, describes this legislative effort as a "tsunami," with dozens of bills proposed in 2023 alone that address issues ranging from AI in nuclear launch decisions to the watermarking of AI-generated content. AI regulation has garnered bipartisan support in Congress, a rarity in today's polarised political climate.
Political Parties' Divergent Priorities
Despite bipartisan enthusiasm, significant differences remain between the parties on what aspects of AI regulation to prioritise. Democrats focus on AI ethics and fairness, while Republicans emphasise data privacy rights and national security. This partisan divide complicates the passage of comprehensive AI legislation, especially as Congress gears up for the upcoming election.
A recent poll by the AI Policy Institute found that voters prefer candidates who support regulating AI, highlighting the public's growing concern over AI's impact. However, Republican voters favour less regulation than their Democratic counterparts, reflecting the party's free-market stance.
Federal Agencies and Private Sector Efforts
With Congress at an impasse, federal agencies and departments have filled the regulatory void by leveraging existing laws to provide guidelines for AI use in various industries. President Biden also took executive action, issuing an order in October 2023 to address AI risks such as bias and privacy while fostering innovation.
In the absence of comprehensive legislation, companies have begun to self-regulate, establishing their own rules for AI's ethical development and deployment. However, experts argue that voluntary codes of conduct are no substitute for mandatory government safeguards. Evi Fuelle, head of policy at AI governance company Credo AI, stresses the need for comprehensive regulation to ensure public safety and well-being.
The Impact of the Upcoming Election
The future of AI regulation in the United States heavily depends on the outcome of the upcoming election. If Congress fails to pass legislation this year, the guidelines set by the Biden administration could be vulnerable to changes by a new administration. A future president could overturn Biden's moderate stance on AI regulation, which aims to balance innovation with modest restrictions.
Former President Donald Trump and his allies are drafting an executive order that would take a different approach. This proposed order would prioritise the development of AI-powered military technology, establish industry-led agencies to evaluate AI models, and roll back what they deem unnecessary regulations.
The Republican National Committee has also expressed its intent to repeal Biden's executive order, criticising it for hindering AI innovation and imposing left-wing ideas. Instead, they advocate for AI development that promotes free speech and human flourishing. While Trump has yet to officially outline his plans for AI regulation, the direction of AI policy could shift dramatically depending on the election results.
Conclusion
As the demand for AI regulation grows, the U.S. faces an uncertain path forward. While federal agencies and private companies strive to fill the regulatory gap, comprehensive legislation remains elusive. The upcoming election will play a crucial role in shaping the future of AI regulation, potentially altering the trajectory set by the current administration. As lawmakers and stakeholders navigate this complex issue, balancing innovation and safety remains a key challenge.