U.S. Migration Trends: Movers Flock to More Affordable and Less Competitive Markets
Recent data from United Van Lines reveals notable trends in U.S. migration patterns, indicating that movers are increasingly choosing affordable metro areas and less competition in the housing market. Key findings include:
Affordability Dynamics: Affordability for both home buyers and renters has witnessed a significant decline over the past four years. The share of median household income required for rent has risen from 26.7% in November 2019 to 29.9% in November 2023. Additionally, the share of income needed for a monthly mortgage payment on a typical home purchase has surged from 22.7% to 38.6% over the same period.
United Van Lines Movers' Preferences: In 2023, United Van Lines movers opted for metro areas where a home would save them, on average, about $7,500 compared to their origin. This is despite having higher average household incomes than other movers. The trend reflects a shift towards less expensive markets as housing costs increased.
Top Destinations: Among the 50 largest metro areas, the maximum net inbound destinations for United Van Lines movers were Charlotte, Providence, Indianapolis, Orlando, and Raleigh. These cities, such as New York, Chicago, Dallas, and Los Angeles, attracted more movers than outbound locations.
Cost Savings: Movers to 2023 destination metros saved an average of about $7,500 compared to their origin. This is a decrease from the peak of the pandemic housing market in 2021, when the savings were $8,900, but an increase from $2,800 in 2019.
Affordability Impact on Population Growth: Metros with more outbound moves than inbound moves tend to experience lower growth in their working-age population in the same year and lower growth in home values in the subsequent year.
Complex Relationship Between Home Values and Population: While increasing the homebuying age population raises housing demand and values, higher home values leading to less affordable housing can discourage households from moving in and impact population growth.
These trends underscore the influence of affordability and housing market dynamics on migration patterns, with movers seeking more cost-effective and less competitive options amid changing economic conditions.