Renewable energy growth may help limit global warming to 1.5 C

A study from the International Energy Agency says that goals to keep global warming below 1.5 C are still possible because clean energy technologies have been used more than ever in the past two years.

Over the past two years, the renewable energy and electric vehicle industries have grown at a rate never seen before; this has kept a way open to keep global warming below 1.5 C this century. A report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) says the road is getting narrower.

In a statement, IEA head Fatih Birol said, "The world needs to work together quickly to keep the goal of keeping global warming to 1.5 C alive." "The good thing is that we know what to do and how to do it."

The study updates the organization's 2021 roadmap, which shows how the global energy system would need to change to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. This evaluation found that if all the countries did what was in the plan, average global temperatures would rise above 1.5 C compared to pre-industrial levels for a short time and then drop below that level by the end of the century.

Even though world greenhouse gas emissions are still rising, a clean energy boom since 2021 has kept the path in sight, even if just barely.

In the 2021 report, technologies that needed to be ready were expected to cut emissions by half what was planned. In the new report, that number drops to 35%. Technologies like carbon capture, hydrogen, and bioenergy play less of a role, while renewable energy and more efficient use of energy play a more significant part.

This is because there have been record increases in the use of solar power and electric vehicles over the past two years. According to a study, Both of these trends align with the steep trajectories needed to reach net-zero emissions on a global scale by the middle of the century. Based on this change, the IEA made its first prediction that the market for fossil fuels will peak before 2030.

The updated report also shows how the global energy system has changed since 2021. For example, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to new policies that put more stress on energy security.

"The path to 1.5 C has gotten narrower in the last two years, but clean energy technologies are keeping it open," said Birol. He pointed to signs that the world is moving away from fossil fuels and toward green energy sources. For example, the G20 recently agreed to triple the amount of renewable energy by 2030.

Even though these are good signs, the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere makes it almost impossible to meet the Paris Agreement goal of not going over 1.5 C, says Michelle Dvorak of the University of Washington. This is true even if no more greenhouse gases are released.

Even if the goal is to keep warming below 1.5 C by the end of the century, it will take more ambitious measures to reach that goal. The IEA report says that high-income countries would have to move their net-zero goals up to 2045, and China would have to reach net zero by 2050 instead of 2060. There would be more time for emerging countries.

Still, it would take a lot of work to cut pollution to the level needed. The study says closing the gap would also require doubling the rate of system-wide energy efficiency improvements and sharply increasing the sales of electric cars and electric heat pumps, which are already going at a rate that has never been seen.

The fossil fuel industry must also cut methane emissions by 75%. Between now and 2030, about 2 million kilometres of transmission lines would have to be built yearly to get all the clean energy to where it is needed.